Tuesday 4 November 2008

Does deleveraging really explain this last stage of the crisis?

In Oct, we saw that as the crisis intensified, the credit-starved global markets used asset disposal to stay afloat. But as the markets start to discount the prospects of a major economic slowdown driven by lower investments and reduced consumption, focus is shifted to the real economy.
Citadel, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have all recently announced billion dollar hedge fund losses as we saw the crisis most recently morphing into it's most current form: Asian Vol crisis.
But equally conflicting signals continue to alert the market to falling overnight rates and the normalisation of the commercial paper segment.

We have had several up days in the global markets this week so far, but I continue to think that this is just a short term reprieve from what the markets have suffered in the last month. As year end approaches, more hedge funds are going to face further redemptions and it might be worth our time right now to think about what the stage stage of the delveraging will look like...

Eric Tan, London

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