How Amex's results may give us an insight into the economy in the next 12 months. Markets for the week ending 8-Aug.

Market commentary
- This week, the Federal reserve, MPC and ECB all voted to keep interest rates unchanged.
- Weakening economies left the central banks with little scope to toughen their stance on rising inflation.
- Medium term inflation outlook has improved slightly due to recent drop in oil prices.

How Amex's results may give us an insight into the economy in the next 12 months:Profile of Amex:
- Considered the creme de la creme of credit card lenders
- Premium upscale consumer and business clientele that generally does not carry balances on their cards.

Results:
- 2Q2008 net income from continuing operations :$655 million, down from $1.04 billion in 2Q2007,
- Higher-than-expected provisions on its credit card lending portfolio
30 days past due card loans and 90 days past due card receivables rising to one of their highest levels ever at 3.9% and 3.0%
- Predict delinquent credit card payments, credit cards defaults and losses to rise over the current levels as US housing price decline, rising unemployment levels and increasing energy, commodity and food prices borne from burgeoning inflationary pressures continues to take it's toll on the economy.

Eric Tan, London