Can spending hold up?

Overview of the the current state of the US economy

The American economy is contracting at its steepest pace in 50 years, the government reported on Wednesday, but an unanticipated rise in consumer spending since January suggested to many economists that the worst of the recession might have passed

Output fell at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the January-through-March quarter after falling at a rate of 6.3 percent in last year’s fourth quar
Analysts are expecting that as tax breaks and government stimulus spending kick in, the decline in the gross domestic product could be cut in half by summer by federal spending and on various small windfalls for consumers

The looming question remains the severity of job losses. More than five million jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December 2007. As their wages disappear, households spend less, and business, in response, reduces the output of goods and services, cutting more jobs in the process.

Eric Tan

Thoughts on being "cautiously optimistic" on the economy.

Key question to ask: Can an inventory-driven recovery in output, alongside aggressively expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, generate enough optimism among consumers, producers, and lenders to make the recovery sustainable for more than a few months?

any thoughts ?